Moore’s Law Related to Google

The end of MooreЎ¦s Law?

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 2

2. MooreЎ¦s Law 3

3. Stakeholders 5

3.1 Companies 5

3.2 Governments 5

3.3 Academics 6

3.4 End-users 6

4. Driving Forces 7

4.1 Self Fulfilling Prophecy 7

4.2 Technical Possibilities 7

4.3 Economic Aspects 8

5. Scenarios 9

6. The consequences of the failing law for the main stakeholders 10

6.1 The governmental (macro) domain 10

6.2 The corporate (meso) domain 10

6.3 The end-user (micro) domain 12

6.4 The academic domain 12

7. Contingency Strategies to reduce Risk Exposure 13

7.1 The governmental (macro) domain 13

7.2 The corporate (meso) domain 13

7.3 The end-user (micro) domain 13

7.4 The academic domain 13

8. Conclusion 14

9. References 15

1. Introduction

We live in a period where technology is developing fast and is causing competition between many companies and organizations. Personal computers are getting better, faster and are more reliable, which increases the development of new technologies in different areas. New operating systems and complex software are developed using these ЎҐsuperЎ¦ computers, increasing the need for even better PCs that can operate these demanding applications. The ability to continue developing better central processing units (CPUs) and better PCs is an issue that affects many people and companies; this brings up the issue of the survival of MooreЎ¦s law.

MooreЎ¦s law discusses the fact that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 24 months, and that this results in better computers that give the possibility for the technology to keep growing in a fast moving track. This law was created in 1970 and is attributed to Gordon E. Moore. Many opinions which question its validity have popped up ever since.

This paper discusses different aspects of MooreЎ¦s law, tries to capture a forecast of the future of this law, and discusses the consequences if MooreЎ¦s law would come to an end. We first describe MooreЎ¦s law and the changes in the law that occurred since its creation. We will discuss the self-fulfilling prophecy viewpoint, and the technical, physical, and economical obstacles that raised the question of validation of this law.

Further discussion will be about the alternatives and different scenarios if MooreЎ¦s law comes to an end, what other technologies can be used to improve computer performance, and about the continuation of a steady increase in technology.

We dedicated a full section for the general consequences if MooreЎ¦s law will not be valid anymore. We will explain the effects of this on the economy and industry, and the reasons for those effects. We will also focus on the consequences for the search engine market and other related markets in which Google operates. The question about the gains and losses if MooreЎ¦s law will come to an end and the effect on the stakeholders will be answered in this paper. This will give us a broader view of the different stakeholders in the computer market and the common worries that the industry shares.

2. MooreЎ¦s Law

In 1965, the co-founder of Intel, Gordon E. Moore said that Ў§the number of transistors on an integrated circuit for minimum component cost doubles every 24 monthsЎЁ. This idea was a useful predictor for the rapid development in computer technology since the number of transistors on a chip indicates the computer processing power. Because the idea seemed to be more or less valid, it was named in 1970 Ў§MooreЎ¦s LawЎЁ. Figure 1 shows the relation between the exponential growth of the number of transistors and