China's Population: New Trends and Challenges

China's Population: New Trends and Challenges

Riley, Nancy E

China has been the world's most populous country for centuries and today makes up one-fifth of the world's population. It is no surprise that China's huge population, tumultuous demographic history, and possible future have attracted the world's attention. The country's growing economic strength, combined with its demographic might, ensures it will stay in the limelight for a long time to come.

The country has undergone enormous social, economic, and political changes over the past 50 years, but many of the issues that Chinese society faces today are also closely connected to past demographic change. Because of the rapid and extensive fertility declines in China in the past 30 years, the country's rate of population growth has slowed considerably. The country's population of 1.3 billion in the early 200Os is projected to grow by another 100 million by 2050. India-with its higher fertility levels-is forecast to move ahead of China in total population size by 2035.

China covers about the same geographic area as the United States, although its population is nearly five times greater. In addition, because of rugged mountains in the west and vast desert areas in central China, the population is concentrated within a surprisingly small area.

Rapid population growth during the 20th century helped shaped China's society in myriad ways as China concurrently struggled with the breakdown of its dynastic structure, world wars, civil wars, and the founding of a new nation. The 20th century was a time of momentous changes for the Chinese people, and demographic change was very much a part of their social and political transformation.

This Population Bulletin draws from a growing body of statistical data and research (see Box 1, page 4) to look at some of the demographic changes that have occurred in China's recent past, beginning with a brief introduction to China's demographic history. The Bulletin examines government policies that have significantly affected the country's population, and it looks at some of the current social issues that China faces and how demographic events have affected those issues.

Political Change

China's population has undergone massive change since the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. When the Chinese Communists formed the new government, there were roughly one-half billion Chinese. Millions of peasants lived in abject poverty, subject to unstable political conditions. The Chinese had endured a civil war, with Japan, serious flooding, famine, and social and political turmoil. China's new leaders were determined to reduce poverty and stabilize the political situation. The founders of the PRC implemented