Chine and Taiwan Crisis

The People's Republic of China has recently passed an anti-secession law aimed at the Republic of China whom they still claim is a rogue province still under the law and subject to rule by Beijing. Taiwan for years has walked a very fine line between fully breaking from China which it began after the Communist revolution shortly after World War II, and full independence which it has so sought for more than a generation. With the possibility of Taiwan seceding from China increasing the Chinese have been slowly backed into a very unfavorable position which could erupt into a regional conflict and perhaps even another World War.

The Chinese have publicly stated that if the government of Taiwan tries to pass a declaration of independence from the mainland, the Chinese government would be forced into a position where they would have to "rein in" the rogue province through military force. This has set the stage for a possible conflict which could intensify at a moments notice. Washington DC has stated that if any attacks are made by the PRC on the ROC then the United States of America will assist in the defense of the Republic of China.

I think this situation will stop at only words and not lead to an all-out attack by the PRC on the ROC. When the idea of a war between China and Taiwan is discussed it is inevitable that someone will quickly point out the fact that the PRC has the world’s largest standing army. This fact is not in dispute however what is in dispute is the PRC's ability to effectively hit Taiwan with a military strike.

Most of the PLA troops are infantry with armored divisions being the next largest part of the PLA. This in and of itself presents a problem for the PRC when fighting the ROC, that problem: How to get the troops from the PRC to the ROC through the Strait of Taiwan. The PLA's first and quickest option is an airborne assault dropping large amounts of paratroopers on Taiwan to secure key installations and airports so heavier transports with the armored divisions and land and supply the mass of the troops required for a full scale invasion. The problem with this plan is two-fold. First of all the People's Liberation Army Air Force has just two Airborne Corps and roughly five-hundred transport aircraft which is not big enough to land enough troops on the ground to effectively seize every installation needed for a decisive victory immediately. The second problem with the airborne assault plan is the ROC air defense network.

The ROC has a very string air defense network comprised of American and European weaponry consisting in the two major categories of Air Superiority/Interceptor aircraft and Surface to Air defense. The ROC has over 400 air superiority fighters including over one-hundred Lockheed F-16 Fighting Falcons and over 50 Dassault Mirage 2000 interceptors. The F-16 in combination with the AIM-120 AMRAAM missile can effectively engage air targets with a very high probability of a kill at over 20miles. The Dassault Mirage 200 armed with MICA and MAGIC missiles is capable of the same effectiveness as the F-16s.

The ROC also maintains over 100 IDF fighters and nearly 100 F-5E Tiger fighters for air defense. The ROC air defense grid also has an undisclosed amount of Surface to Air Missiles in the form of the US Avenger system, Patriot Missiles, HAWK SAMs and the Chaparral Defense system in conjunction with the man-portable hand-held FIM-92A Stinger system. This system of air defense along with the ROC Naval air defense system makes any attack from the PRC extremely unlikely. The only other option for the PLA is a naval assault with a beach landing to put men and armor on the ground all at once. Once again where