Critical Thinking - the Barnum Effect

The topic I’ve selected is critical thinking. It seems to me that many people believe what anybody tells them and don’t dig deeper by asking “How do you know that” and “Where did you get your information.” Many people base their beliefs on hearsay and don’t investigate or outright ignore the results of controlled scientific study. Critical thinking involves questioning the claims made by others, examining the data they are using to support their claims, and includes things like not inferring cause and effect from correlational research, casual observations, or anecdotal evidence (Myers, 2006). To demonstrate the importance of critical thinking, I am going to discuss three factors that often cause individuals not to use critical thinking. I have chosen the Barnum Effect, confirmatory bias and the false consensus effect as my concept sections as these are common shortcuts people take instead of using of critical thinking.

Concept Section #1: The Barnum Effect

The Barnum Effect occurs when people believe that general predictions made by others applies to them. This phrase stems for P.T Barnum’s saying that the circus has something for everyone (Myers, 2006). Things like astrology are based on this effect. General predictions (like “you will have success in the future”) can basically apply to everyone but people falsely believe that the astrologer is actually able to predict the future.

Real World Example #1: One example of this in the “real world” occurred in the television show “Friends.” In one episode one of the characters, Phoebe, was told something vague about her future by an astrologer. She spent the entire episode using all her experiences (both good and bad) to validate the accuracy of the prediction. It was very comical because she kept saying “maybe this was what the person was talking about.” This clearly shows how vague predictions caused the Barnum effect in Phoebe in that she felt that all her experiences, even contradictory ones, might possibly support the prediction.

Real World Example #2: To further explore the Barnum Effect, I conducted two interviews. One interview I conducted was with an acquaintance who is an astrologer, and the other interview was with a friend of mine after the astrologer read her horoscope. I interviewed both individuals for approximately 15 minutes. I asked the astrologer how she think she is able to predict the future and she believes that is a gift she inherited form her mother who also is an astrologer. I asked