Macroeconomic Forecast

Macroeconomic Forecast

Mercedes Martishius

ECO553

September 15, 2004

Abstract

Since the middle of 2000, our economy has had many challenges: equity prices have declined, capital spending has fallen, the terrorists’ attacks of September 11, Corporations such as Enron have shown their ugly sides, and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Had any combination of these events happened two or three decades ago our economy would have suffered a serious contraction. Remarkably, over the past three years, activity has expanded, offering clear evidence of a flexible, more resilient, economic system. The following paper will attempt to prove just how resilient our economy is by focusing on four economic indicators; Employment Growth, Interest Rates, Retail Sales and Inflation.

Macroeconomics Forecast

Employment Growth

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the U.S. Department of Labor has compiled a 10-year projection of economic growth. These statistics are widely used in career guidance, education planning and training programs, but mainly to study long-range employment trends.