2020 Predictions Essay

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Today in 2020, we have experienced a major economic shift relative to the previous decade. Advanced economies have slowed in growth while many emerging economies have increased drastically. The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 has left a significant impact on advanced economies and has aided their steady decline. Smaller economies have been less affected by the global crisis and were able to quickly recover. Due to these new emerging markets and the decline of global economic leaders, the world is now experiencing a significant economic shift. [pic 2]

China has overtaken the U.S. to become the world’s new economic superpower. The American economy arguably suffered the most damage in the past decade and was unable to keep up with these new emerging markets. From 2000-2010, America’s share of global GDP fell considerably in terms of PPP from 23.7% to 20.2%. Even though it has been steadily increasing through stimulus measures, it has not been able to keep up with China. From 2000-2010, China’s share of GDP increased from 7.3% to 13.3%. While the U.S. economy decreased nearly 4% on a global level, the Chinese economy increased by about the same amount. By 2014, China surpassed the U.S. with a GDP of $17.6 trillion or 16.48% of global GDP in terms of PPP. The U.S. accounted for $17.4 trillion or 16.28% of global GDP in terms of PPP. PPP is regarded as the most accurate estimate of global economies rather than using exchange rates which change frequently and do not reflect the true cost of goods and services. Now in 2020, China has remained the world economic leader and has overtaken the U.S. in other economic aspects as well.

Not only has China increased to become a major economic superpower, but other emerging markets have grown significantly as well. In 2013, India surpassed Japan to become the world’s third largest economy accounting for 5.8% of global GDP in PPP. Since then, due to its young and fast growing population, it has risen to become a major economic power. Russia has just recently overtaken Germany to become the world’s fifth largest economy. Furthermore, Brazil has surpassed both the UK and France to become the world’s seventh largest economy. Due to the fact that both Russia and Brazil are major exporters of energy and natural resources, their growth potential continues to be promising. Mexico has also exceeded Italy to become the world’s tenth largest economic superpower. Large population growth and proximity to the United States has aided their economic development. Due to these emerging economic superpowers, global economic power has now become more balanced. These emerging consumer markets have provided huge opportunity and foreign investment.

As this new age has begun, a new generation of world leaders and decision-makers has been established. The last of the Silent Generation has passed away and the influence of Baby Boomers has significantly decreased. This new generation (Generation X), is now coming into power and will change and control world politics. Those of this generation are less religious, have less respect for rules and authority, very technological, concerned for the environment, and more believing of science and climate change. Today in 2020, the values and characteristics of this new generation are directly impacting political and legal issues and will play a huge role in future politics.[pic 3]

One of the major global political factors of previous decades has been the demand for oil. This huge demand for oil has been the one key driver of political events worldwide. However, now in 2020, the demand for oil is significantly lessened. The U.S. has now lost its dependency on Saudi Arabian oil and has become self-sufficient in energy through new technology and natural gas. Without this huge dependency on the Middle East, global politics has changed dramatically as international interests have shifted elsewhere. Subsequently, with the rise of China as a political and economic power; Beijing has replaced Washington as the primary customer; and therefore chief defender, of Middle East oil exportation. China has always been reluctant to interfere in global domestic affairs. However, now that they have a huge investment in the oil regions, they will have to protect their interests. The presence of the U.S. in the Middle East has always protected Israel from any possible regional attacks. Throughout the past decade, Washington’s involvement in these regions has helped keep the peace and promote political infrastructure. However, now that the demand for oil has lessened, the willingness to shed blood for these countries has also significantly declined. And as a huge debtor to China, the U.S. is taking the backseat in their foreign affairs in the Middle East. China is now the controller of these regions and will promote their interests instead. America has always been in favor of isolationism and the only reason they stayed in the Middle East was because it supplied the fuel to keep America running. Now that their dependency for oil is gone, the political future of the Middle East is dependent upon China.