Financial Forecast for Home Depot

Financial Forecast for Home Depot

Assumptions:

2000年以前 L 没有加入到了城市市场

2000-2001.。。。竞争相互

• New stores/number of stores---Growth in new stores:

Can be used to calculate the number of new stores

From 1997-2001, the growth rate in new stores decreases from 22% to 17.5%. The CEO of the company wants to enhance the store efficiency and the operating cost has increased recently due to the high occupancy cost of new stores. But still, the company wants to conduct the expansion strategy. So we assume that the growth rate in new stores will decline in the next five years. The decreasing rate will be calculated as the rate of 2001.

Decreasing rate 18% /15%

2000 new policy enhance efficiency  base on 2000

    竞争 恒定速度

• Sales growth for existing stores--- enhance efficiency  store 上升的幅度不大 整体看 2000-2001------2%
• Sales----Total sales growth=growth in new stores + sales growth for existing stores
• COGS----Gross margin 平均算
• Cash operating expenses---Cash operating expenses/sales 平均比率 lower expense efficiency 以一个比较小的1%的速率降低
• Depreciation---Depreciation/sales 不变 平均
• Nonrecurring expenses---0
• Income-tax---Income-tax rate  未来 经济增长在2003稳定 所以税收在2003---38% 2001 和2002年采用平均下降

• Cash & ST investment---Cash & ST investments/sales sales 促进 ---5%
• Accounts receivable---Receivable turnover
• Merchandise inventory---Inventory turnover 增加 不同
• Other current assets--- 2000 2001 平均值 stable
• P &E---P&E turnover stable 3.3
• Other assets---658

• Accounts payables---Payables/COGS
• Accrued salaries and wages---717 占比小
• Short-term borrowings---
• Current maturities of long-term debt---
• Other current liabilities---Other current liabilities/sales 慢慢涨。。。3.89-4.38
• Long-term debt---
• Deferred income taxes---
• Other long term liabilities
• Minority interest---0
• Shareholder’s equity= net earnings + equity

Differences from the analyst’s forecast:

Financial Forecast for Lowe’s