Future of Supermarkets

10. The Future

LONG TERM

In the long term, the distinction between buying online and offline is likely to disappear, or at least become opaque. Even the concept of the Internet may seem confused beyond the medium term. The convergence of the Internet with mobile telephones and DTVs (digital televisions) will make the Internet an even cloudier place.

Research performed by the Henley Research Centre suggests that shopping via the television will overtake Internet shopping by 2004, and that over 90% of UK homes will have interactive shopping via digital television by 2010. 1 Iceland and Telewest are developing such a service. 2

Large companies will dominate, with a handful of companies likely to account for more than three-quarters of the market. 3

Bursting the Internet Bubble?

Spectators are starting to discuss the idea of the Internet bubble bursting. The failure of many 'dotcoms' and online-based traders has made people realise that the Internet and associated new technologies do not deliver magical productivity growth and financial reward. Instead, analysts are starting to talk in terms of the Internet being little more than a genuine, powerful tool best exploited by established funds with the reputation and backing to succeed in winning over public support. For these companies, taking their strategies online can offer huge scope for cost-cutting and penetration into markets that cannot be accessed through traditional routes. It is recognised that the Internet may not offer such huge benefits to first movers, those start-ups keen to exploit a niche in the market or some fantastic technological development. Instead, it is for those