International Cocoa Organisation

msdflsm,fmds,.f/mdsfm,ds./mf• Indonesia 535,000 tonnes

• Nigeria 240,000 tonnes

• Cameroon 190,000 tonnes

Source: International Cocoa Organisation

The impact of the ban would have been much more severe had it not been for the bumper harvest last year that has led to a surplus of cocoa on the global market, according to the International Cocoa Organisation (ICO).

In fact, the price of cocoa would have fallen but for the ban.

These stocks mean "there is no real problem in the short term", says Laurent Pipitone at the ICO.

Indeed, Ghana, which is the world's second-biggest cocoa producer with more than 20% of the market, is taking up much of the slack.

The question, of course, is how long it can continue to do so. If the ban continues indefinitely, a gaping hole in global supply will soon open up.

There is also the danger that much of last year's harvest will be lost.

"The quality will suffer, but cocoa can last for years if properly stored," explains Mr Pipitone.

"But kept in bad storage conditions, it can deteriorate in a matter of months."

The likelihood is that the vast quantities of cocoa being stockpiled at Ivory Coast ports are not being kept in premium conditions.

So, if the ban continues beyond the capacity of other producers to support global demand, the consequences for the international cocoa market will be severe.

"The market cannot function without the Ivory Coast," says Mr Pipitone.

"In the coming months there will be a huge problem if there is no Ivory Coast cocoa. The price will go through the roof - that is certain."

Political game

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