Multipolarity

Polarity refers to the division of power between the strong political entities in the international community. There can be four types of polarity in the international system; unipolarity, bipolarity, tripolarity and multipolarity. There used to be bipolarity in the international community after the Second World War (1945) in which USSR and US were the great powers. After Cold War ended, phase of bipolarity also ended and unipolarity emerged making US as the only super power. Since then, America has been ruling all over the world and forming institutionalized hegemony through international institutions like UN, World Bank and IMF.

Multipolarity in 2025:

Now days, the international community is turning into multipolarity. Various super powers are emerging and are in the queue towards becoming regional powers and super powers. It has been depicted that in 2025, multipolarity will prevail and US hegemony will face a downfall. The power global wealth and economic power will shift from West to East. The list of countries that are emerging super powers include Brazil, Russia, India and China. There are variations related to this depiction, some say that 2025 will be a complete multipolar world while some assume that US will remain first among the equals even if various other powers emerge. Along with the emerging states, various non-state actors will also become powerful. Keeping history in mind, this multipolarity can lead to unstable international system. Although there is no clear conclusion of this emerging multipolarity in 2025, only assumptions can be made on the basis of which different outcomes can be drawn.

Impacts on United States:

The multipolar world in 2025 will have a great impact on the role of US. There are different schools of thought regarding the impact on US caused due to the multipolar division of power in the world. On one hand, it has been claimed that despite of other powers emergence, US will always play the most important role in the international community and due to various international conflicts US role can be made stronger as compared to other powers. On the other hand, various reasons of the downfall of US supremacy have been proposed as US will have less power in the multipolar world along with a relative economic decline.

Chances of US Role to Remain Stronger:

The advocates of US role remaining stronger among other powers in the next 15-20 years claim various reasons. One of the reasons is China’s rise in the region. China’s neighboring countries are upset because of its strong emergence in the region. Countries like India are very much concerned towards China’s military modernization program as India also has interest in becoming the regional power. In such a situation, US will be seen as the much-needed regional balancer in Middle East and Asia.

Moreover, US’s leadership qualities will make it capable for controlling the security issues and other issues by encouraging different states. An example of environment can be taken in this regard as many countries view US leadership important to encourage great countries like China and India to take steps to reduce carbon emissions in post 2012 era. US will also continue to play important role in keeping the world safe from nuclear proliferation.

Along with the states emerging as powers, non-state actors will also become strong contenders of US and other major states. The number of US partners might fall with the trend of mercantilism and resource nationalism. Though US will have many contenders like China and India but they will remain the status quo powers. Their focus will be their own development and they would like to exert regional influence independent of US. Although, their aim of US independence will prevail, still there are chances of deepening relations with the US in case any economic collapse occurs especially in case of China. Domestic challenges might appear for Europe which hinders its capability to take important global role. External threat like terrorism and from Russia can also make Europe dependent for more security.

US Hegemony Declining in the International Community:

According to the current trends, Russia has more interest in challenging US hegemony and dominance. A more diversified economy, development of an independent middle class, and reliance on foreign technological expertise and investment for development of its energy resources can help Russia in changing the paths and challenging US hegemony. On the other hand, in Middle Eastern countries, where US appear to be dominating, greater role for Asian countries is suspected keeping the current trends in view. The role of NGOs is also increasing