Pandemic

A social problem under great scrutiny at the moment is the potential for a pandemic that would result from an avian flu outbreak. At first this met the definition of social problem because it was defined by a influential individuals but with the the media saturation they have been joined by a significant number of the general population that believe that this is pressing social situation also. The World Health Organization was putting out warnings about the potential for outbreak over a year ago but it is the recent media blitz that has focused the public’s attention to the problem. The problem has been framed not from a scientific stand point but also in a large part from a historical stand point. The most recent pandemic occurred in 1968 and mild compared to the 1957 outbreak or the killer strain of 1918. The 1918 outbreak is the most well known and most virulent in recent history. Following the historical pattern of pandemic outbreaks we are now in the window for the next one to occur. Official’s state that is not a matter of if a pandemic will occur but when. Most of the press on the subject only discusses a virulent strain of flu outbreak which is fueled by the rise of the avian flu cases in Asia. But pandemics can also be mild or moderate depending on the how much the flu strain has mutated.. I think for the general public the word pandemic has become synonymous with a killer outbreak instead of its correct meaning of a widespread abnormal rate of infection.

Trying to estimate the effects a killer flu can be difficult. The number of people that are anticipated to die from an outbreak ranges from 2 million to 7 million. Some more alarmist articles put the numbers even higher. The economic effects in today’s global economy are high also. To give us an idea of the effect on a much smaller scale the SARS outbreak in Canada in 2003 infected 438 people of which 43 died. It is estimated that during the six month period of the outbreak cost the nation’s economy $419 million and $763 million was spent by the health care system to combat the outbreak. Given this example we can imagine the extent of the economic impact from a full blown flu outbreak. Drug companies are actually benefiting from the recent pandemic concerns the makers of flu antivirus and antiviral medications that have shown to be effective against flu strains are selling everything they are able to produce. They are even adding capacity to take advantage in this upswing in demand.

So far the avian flu has only infected 115 people but the mortality rate is 50%. It has not mutated into a strain that is easily transmitted from person to person. Individuals who have contracted it have received from close contact with birds and poor preparation of fowl that carry the virus.

The pandemic social problem is initially framed by scientist and health organizations they provide the expertise and knowledge that drives the government policies. The media has played a large hand in the shaping of individuals attitudes towards the particular social problem. From articles in National Geographic to weekly updates on the nightly news about pandemic preparations and potential ramifications. I think at this point the media actually whipping up more of a panic about the subject than actual beneficial information. Noticing the intense scrutiny on the subject the White House has respond by releasing a 17 page document that outlines their strategy to deal with an outbreak on November 1 of this year. That’s in addition to the Department of Health & Human Services documentation on their strategy to contain and deal with an outbreak.

This particular social problem has drawn a lot of attention, even though it has not technically manifested itself yet, because it has no boundaries. If it flares up it will hit all social and economic classes and it will travel will tourists and trade routes and with the mobility of today’s populace every country will be affected by it. The plans to deal with problem center around containment hoping minimize and control its effects before it gets out of control. The government believes there is a 30 day window that is essential to identifying an outbreak and mobilizing to contain it to a specific area. Unfortunately presently it is taking 20 days to verify a case of the avian flu leaving only a window of 10 days to mobilize a response. At that rate of identifying an outbreak