Does Length of Sentence Affect Recidivism?

Gottfredson et al. (1973) studied 104,182 male prisoners in 14 offense categories in the United

States who were paroled for the first time between 1965 and 1970. The follow-up time was one

year, with recidivism defined as a return to prison. The median time served ranged from 12.2

months for fraud offenders (non-check fraud) to 58.6 months for homicide offenders. In this

study, attempts were made to statistically control for the effects of offense type, prior offense,

and age. Results indicated that while on parole, offenders with the longest time served generally

had higher recidivism rates than offenders with the shortest time served. The significance of the

association between time served and the recidivism rates varied across different offense

categories. For property offenders, all subgroups (auto theft, check offense, burglary, larceny,

and fraud) who served the longest time had higher recidivism rates than those subgroups who

served the shortest time. For armed robbery and drug offenses, however, offenders with longer

sentences had slightly lower recidivism rates than offenders with shorter sentences.

Beck and Hoffman (1976) followed 1,546 adult federal prisoners in the United States for two

years after their release. Offenders were categorized according to their ìsalient factor scoreî

which took into account their prior criminal history, age, education, employment history, and

marital status. The offenders were first grouped by their scores, and were then further divided

according to their time served. Results showed that there was no substantial association

between time served and the recidivism rates.

Gottfredson, Gottfredson, and Garofalo (1977) investigated the relationship between time served

and parole outcome in a single jurisdiction. The study followed 5,349 male prisoners paroled in

Ohio between 1965 and 1972, with a follow-up time of one year. The offenders were classified 6

into nine categories of reoffense risk according to their age, offense type, prior criminal history,

alcohol and drug use, and parole performance. Results of the study showed a somewhat mixed

relationship between time served and the recidivism rates in different risk categories. However,

the authors were able to conclude that overall, increased length of time served did not reduce

recidivism. The recidivism rates either increased or remained constant with increased time

served.

Orsagh and Chen (1988) tested the theory that there is an optimum sentence length which

minimizes recidivism rates. The researchers studied 1,425 offenders released from a North

Carolina prison in 1980. Of the total sample, 40 percent had been incarcerated for robbery or

burglary. These offenders were followed for two years and recidivism was defined as a postrelease arrest. After controlling for the potential effects of age, race, marital status, employment,

and criminal history, the findings indicated:

• For robbery offenders, the probability of reoffense increased with the amount of time

served.

• For burglary offenders, the estimated optimum time served was 1.3 years for younger

offenders (younger than the median age) and 1.8 years for older offenders. In other

words, beyond 1.3 years, recidivism rates go up for younger offenders, controlling for

other possible explanations. Similarly, for older offenders, recidivism rates go up after

1.8 years served.

• For the whole group of offenders that were convicted of any offenses, including