Scenario Vs Forecasting

Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision-making process. Often, consideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are

( 1 ) increased understanding of key uncertainties,

( 2 ) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning

( 3 ) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.

Garry D. Peterson*‡, Graeme S. Cumming† and Stephen R. Carpenter*

Scenarios as used in business, other organizations, and government planning fall into two broad categories.One is scenarios that tell about some future state or condition in which the institution is embedded. That scenario then is used to stimulate users to develop and clarify practical choices, policies, and alternative actions that may be taken to deal with the consequences of the scenario.

The second form tells a different story. It assumes that policy has been established. Policy and its consequences are integrated into a story about some future state. This second type of scenario, rather than stimulating the discussion of policy choices, displays the consequences of a particular choice or set of choices. The first category of scenario is largely to stimulate thinking and the second is to a tool for explaining or exploring the consequences of some policy decision-either hypothetically or actually made.

Joseph F. Coates, 2000

Why has the scenario become so popular in the business community? The answer is simple. The world has become more complex and at the same time it presents ever larger